When global tensions rise, oil and gas prices tend to spike, driven by constrained supply routes, market uncertainty, and rapid shifts in trading behavior.
They show up in heating bills, electricity costs, and the broader economy.
That’s the nature of fossil fuels. They are global commodities, shaped by forces far beyond any one state’s control. And when those forces shift, even temporarily, the effects cascade quickly.
We see the same dynamic closer to home, particularly in winter. In New York, cold snaps don’t just mean higher demand, they mean tighter natural gas supply, which can send prices soaring. It’s not unusual during extreme events to see prices spike dramatically, driven less by local conditions than by the cost of fuel itself.
Which makes what happened this past winter especially instructive.
“The data from January shows that the nation’s two operating utility-scale offshore wind farms — South Fork Wind and Vineyard Wind — performed as well as gas-fired power plants and better than coal-fired facilities, including during last month’s Winter Storm Fern, experts said at the event,” according to a story in Canary Media.
“The 132-megawatt South Fork Wind farm, which delivers power to Long Island, New York, had a ’capacity factor’ of 52% last month. The metric reflects how much electricity the project actually generated compared with the maximum amount it could generate in a given period. That puts South Fork Wind on par with New York state’s most efficient gas plants.”
When natural gas prices surge, electricity prices follow. But offshore wind (and solar) — because it doesn’t rely on fuel — is not subject to the same underlying cost spikes. Its pricing, largely set in advance through contracts, remained stable even as the broader market lurched.
That distinction points to something larger. We are increasingly operating two energy systems at once. One is tied to fuels that must be continually purchased, transported, and priced on global markets, where war, contested shipping lanes, and the bottom line of oil cartels can impact prices. The other is built on resources like wind and solar, where the primary costs are upfront and the “fuel” is effectively free.
The difference between those systems becomes most visible when things go wrong.
When fuel prices spike — because of a conflict overseas or a cold snap at home — the fossil-fuel side of the system transmits that shock almost immediately. Prices rise, sometimes sharply. But the portion of the system powered by renewables doesn’t move in the same way.
What renewables offer is not just a cleaner alternative, but a different kind of economic model. One where more of the cost is known in advance, more of the investment stays local, and less of the system is exposed to sudden swings.
For New York, that has real implications. The state spends billions of dollars each year bringing fossil fuels into the state, effectively exporting wealth while importing volatility. Expanding offshore wind, solar, and other renewable resources doesn’t just change the emissions profile — it changes that equation. It keeps more energy spending in-state and makes overall costs more predictable over time.
None of this is to suggest that renewables are a silver bullet, or that price spikes disappear overnight. But the more of the grid that is built on resources without fuel costs, the less the entire system is at the mercy of forces it cannot control.