The New York Independent Budget Office [1] has concluded that Metro-North riders will face heavy fare increases unless outside sources of funding save the service. Paying off the bonds it took out for service improvements will cost so much that starting next year, the MTA will run a large deficit unless fares or subsidies increase. The IBO has recommended that a mixture of the two will probably be necessary.

Without extra outside help, fares would have to increase by 48% because it is against NYS Public Authorities law for the MTA to run a deficit. This increase would have riders in 2010 paying nearly $3 for a single ride and $112, up from $2 and $76 respectively. Doing so would push commuters’ contributions to 79% of the MTA’s budget (up from its current 59%). This percentage is comparatively very high: the IBO cites Chicago commuters’ contributions at 36% of their public transportation.

The IBO lays out several other options. Fares and subsidies could increase across the board by 20%, making single passes and 30 day passes costing $2.40 and $92 by 2010.

Riders’ advocacy groups such as the Straphanger’s Campaign [2] are urging Albany leaders to allow for congestion pricing to help alleviate the MTA’s financial stress.